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Istanbulspor had a very bad start to the league and changed their coach. Their ambition is to promote this season, but they did the same mistakes, as last year by buying veteran players, at the end of their careers.

On the other hand, Orduspor started well, under the control of ex national team player Suat Kaya. He had very successful seasons at the reserve team of Galatasaray and his first pro coaching experience is going well, so far.

Ordu is a hard place to win, or basicly to play confident. Since, Orduspor is the only big team of the city and they couldn't promote to top league for too many years, the stadium will probably packed and this is a very important factor in lower leagues, I think.

A change in coaching position often causes good results, at first. But, I didn't read any gossips, about the problems between the manager and players at Istanbulspor. Actually, even the board wanted to keep him and tried to dissuade him by his decision to resign and simply Orduspor is my favourites, by the advantage of home crowd. Also, latest forms point Orduspor too, so those odds are juicy, even there was some changes at technical staff of Istanbulspor.

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Kasimpasa is a really bad organizated team, which receives a lot of goal positions, especially at away games. But, at the same time, because of new transfers completed the adaptation period, they started to score goals.

In the very first game of the league, Kasimpasa created 4-5 "must score" positions at Gaziantep, but they couldn't convert them. After, they played very defensive against Besiktas, but they managed to score against one of the best defenses of the league and after that game, again they missed a lot of positions at Kayseri and they scored 3 goals against Ankaraspor. But, at the same time they received 8 goals, in 4 league games.

On the other hand, last year Denizlispor was a very underish team. They started the season with a very defensive minded Bosnian coach and their new coach Kurtar continued in a similar underish style. But, this year coach Guvenc Kurtar adapted his own style and he is one of the most attaking minded coaches around lower clubs. Especially at home, his Denizlispor finds enough chances to make a game "an over" on their alone. Attacking midfielder Yusuf Simsek (ex Fenerbahce player) plays may be the best, he player ever. He is scoring and preparing positions.

Ramadan and the break for national fixtures are the things, that confuse me. But, if Kasimpasa finally manage to convert the goal positions, over is not that far, as odds say.

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The most important defender of Besiktas Gokhan Zan will miss the game, also creative and very in form winger Serdar Ozkan is in the injury list. Additionally, because of the upcoming CL fixture, it's reported that Bobo and Delgado will be rested by coach Saglam. Actually, the last three missings will obviously effect the offensive power of Besiktas. Their replacements probably will be Nobre, Higuain and Mehmet Yozgatli. Yozgatli had a serious injury and he couldn't play in enough matches, to gain his match fitness. Nobre had a suspension, but management forgave him, so his morale is questionable, he should be motivated, but since Besiktas doesn't have the appropriate playing style to use him effectively, I don't think he will create problems for this bet. Higuain is a new transfer, I couldn't watch him, but he needs time to adapt himself to this team.

Although, they had an under average squad, Ankaraspor performed so much under expectations. Coach Kocaman had a decision to sell the star players and use youth ones, but it didn't work well, so far. So, at the last day of the transfer window, Ankaraspor made some transfers which can and will increase the squad's depth and quality. Necati Ates, Emre Asik and Orhan Ak joined them from Galatasaray. Especially, Ates is a very capable player to perform very good in lower clubs and moreover he's very motivated right now.

There was break and I don't wanna list the theories, about the reaction to this from that break, but since Ankaraspor was playing the worst football amongst the league, it's obvious that, this break was a positive thing for them.

Also, Ramadan has started and I'm sure, there will be a lot of players who will fast in the matchday, even if they don't they fasted in the days with trainings. So, a low tempo game is expected.

Ankaraspor is in a must win situation, with new transfers, they have to do a fresh start in a "TV coveraged" game. Besiktas has the squad advantage, but the missings are important and I think, they will have a hard time at offense. But, since they have one of the best defensive organization in the league, I don't think Ankaraspor will find enough goal positions to blow this game out. My estimation about this game is 25-40-35. So, draw is the most possible outcome of the game and odds mean value. But, I will use low stakes, since the prediction is a draw.

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Another bet against Turkish team...

I just do not wanna repeat all those things to bet against Turks, but I can add new one as, coach Tanjevic is nothing but a joke and after all that very obvious coaching mistakes, nobody can convince me that Turkish players' morales are not down.

Also, there is a must win situation for Italians and Italians have the better team anyway.

This is a bet, I would consider, even if it was a friendly game, so with all those circumstances I tried to explain in my previous picks, this is a high staked pick.

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Early pick, with high stakes. Turks finally managed to win against Czechs and suddenly regain their confidences and they have one of the best squads and bla bla bla... This is nothing but nothing, for me. As I said, I saw this movie once and everything fits with the scenario, so far.

Slovenian team is very motivated here and their recent results show that. They have one of the best defensive statistics so far and look at to the coincidence, Turks had the worst offensive statistics, before Czechs game.

I leave an open door for Turks and I promise to renew my thoughts rapidly, if they can show something different. But, I don't think so and since it has been a very profitable champs, so far, I will not hide my stakes.

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Ankaraspor was a typical draw team, last year. Because, they couldn't find suitable striking force. This year, this situation stands in offense, but since they lost important players from last year, they can not even take draws. There is a big problem at squad planning, since this doesn't look like a squad, which will have a relaxed season at midtable.

Kasimpasa is the worst team, they're even worser than Oftas, they have a coach, with very narrow thougts, little ambitions. I actually very liked the performance at first weekend, they showed at Gaziantep, but against Besiktas, they totally dissapointed me. They don't have any good strikers, or offensive midfielders and their coach doesn't have enough ambition to convert those unqualified guys to a scoring force, in cumulative way.

Very underish fixture, in my opinion. Ankaraspor's defensive performance is not promising but, I can not see Kasimpasa scoring more than 1. So, I will try a riskier bet, with money back option.

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Here comes the main bet of the weekend, for me.

I know, Fenerbahce will be tired, it's always hard to motivate themselves to a local game, after a international game, Zico's squad selection is unknown, bla bla bla...

Even if, Zico field second team, I don't see any chances for Fenerbahce to lose any point at Ankara. Reason is simple, there are more than one level difference between Genclerbirligi Oftas and Fenerbahce's second team.

Oftas received almost 5 clear goal positions against Trabzonspor and found only 1 position back. Unfortunately, they are under the league standards, especially offensively.

So, with the money back option, here is a bet I strongly believe.

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Genclerbirligi started under their expectations, new coach Cipa seems not to adapt himself to this league and president Cavcav seemed to be very relaxed, after some confident seasons without any fear of relegation, so he seems to have some mistakes at off season, especially with the planning of the squad and player choices.

Ankaragucu started the season well, with German coach Briegel. They still have bunch of mediocre players, that I can not understand, how can they still play in the top league, they have some classy players too. Striker Bebbe is very in form. He is especially good at that kinda games, against weaker teams.

Genclerbirligi's main striker force Isaac Promise will miss the game, but they can still score, as their playing style is offensive enough.

Both teams will be motivated, since this is a derby game and there will be enough goal chances for an "over" game. So, odds represent value for me, I will continue with medium stakes.